Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 37,568
2 North Dakota 36,403
3 Mississippi 35,357
4 Florida 34,268
5 Alabama 33,871
6 South Dakota 32,696
7 Iowa 31,837
8 Tennessee 31,372
9 Arizona 31,059
10 Arkansas 30,978
11 South Carolina 30,697
12 Georgia 29,845
13 Texas 28,845
14 Nevada 28,061
15 Wisconsin 27,592
16 Nebraska 27,315
17 Idaho 27,230
18 Utah 27,099
19 Illinois 25,707
20 Oklahoma 25,318
21 Rhode Island 24,820
22 New York 24,676
23 Missouri 24,352
24 New Jersey 24,305
25 Kansas 23,716
26 Delaware 22,889
27 District of Columbia 22,702
28 North Carolina 22,221
29 Maryland 21,892
30 California 21,764
31 Indiana 20,637
32 Massachusetts 20,263
33 Minnesota 20,124
34 Virginia 18,694
35 Kentucky 18,594
36 Montana 17,969
37 Connecticut 17,215
38 Puerto Rico 16,981
39 New Mexico 15,910
40 Michigan 15,148
41 Alaska 14,770
42 Ohio 14,558
43 Pennsylvania 13,891
44 Colorado 13,804
45 Wyoming 13,480
46 Washington 12,904
47 West Virginia 10,200
48 Hawaii 9,658
49 Oregon 8,884
50 New Hampshire 6,772
51 Maine 4,279
52 Vermont 3,006

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 742
2 South Dakota 644
3 Montana 538
4 Nebraska 460
5 Wisconsin 447
6 Utah 371
7 Alaska 321
8 Tennessee 313
9 Wyoming 268
10 Oklahoma 260
11 Iowa 256
12 Indiana 250
13 Minnesota 243
14 Arkansas 240
15 Missouri 240
16 Kansas 237
17 Illinois 217
18 Idaho 184
19 Kentucky 182
20 Nevada 178
21 New Mexico 178
22 Alabama 177
23 Mississippi 173
24 North Carolina 168
25 Delaware 158
26 South Carolina 154
27 Colorado 140
28 Puerto Rico 140
29 Connecticut 125
30 Texas 120
31 Ohio 116
32 Virginia 114
33 Michigan 113
34 Georgia 111
35 Florida 110
36 West Virginia 106
37 Maryland 94
38 Massachusetts 94
39 Arizona 90
40 Pennsylvania 90
41 Louisiana 88
42 District of Columbia 84
43 New Jersey 78
44 California 73
45 Oregon 73
46 New York 62
47 Washington 62
48 New Hampshire 58
49 Hawaii 50
50 Maine 21
51 Vermont 16
52 Rhode Island 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,821
2 New York 1,691
3 Massachusetts 1,395
4 Connecticut 1,271
5 Louisiana 1,219
6 Rhode Island 1,066
7 Mississippi 1,041
8 District of Columbia 902
9 Arizona 791
10 Illinois 730
11 Michigan 723
12 Florida 717
13 South Carolina 691
14 Georgia 683
15 Delaware 673
16 Maryland 662
17 Pennsylvania 659
18 Texas 588
19 Indiana 563
20 Alabama 543
21 Nevada 542
22 Arkansas 525
23 Iowa 469
24 North Dakota 459
25 New Mexico 436
26 Ohio 428
27 California 419
28 Missouri 404
29 Tennessee 401
30 Virginia 393
31 Minnesota 389
32 Colorado 372
33 North Carolina 362
34 New Hampshire 335
35 South Dakota 325
36 Washington 300
37 Kentucky 290
38 Idaho 285
39 Oklahoma 279
40 Nebraska 273
41 Kansas 264
42 Wisconsin 255
43 Puerto Rico 230
44 West Virginia 214
45 Montana 198
46 Utah 163
47 Oregon 142
48 Hawaii 118
49 Maine 106
50 Wyoming 93
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 76

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 10
2 Arkansas 6
3 South Dakota 4
4 Florida 3
5 Georgia 2
6 Iowa 2
7 Louisiana 2
8 Mississippi 2
9 New Mexico 2
10 Tennessee 2
11 Wisconsin 2
12 Colorado 1
13 Delaware 1
14 District of Columbia 1
15 Illinois 1
16 Indiana 1
17 Kansas 1
18 Kentucky 1
19 Massachusetts 1
20 Minnesota 1
21 Missouri 1
22 Montana 1
23 Nebraska 1
24 Nevada 1
25 New Hampshire 1
26 Oklahoma 1
27 Pennsylvania 1
28 Puerto Rico 1
29 South Carolina 1
30 Texas 1
31 Utah 1
32 West Virginia 1
33 Alabama 0
34 Alaska 0
35 Arizona 0
36 California 0
37 Connecticut 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Idaho 0
40 Maine 0
41 Maryland 0
42 Michigan 0
43 New Jersey 0
44 New York 0
45 North Carolina 0
46 Ohio 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Rhode Island 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 165,003 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 156,413 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 151,896 3 99
Lafayette Florida 148,302 4 99
Lake Tennessee 135,405 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 44,047 225 92
Richland South Carolina 38,849 336 89
York South Carolina 21,137 1324 57
Orange California 18,136 1596 49
Pierce Washington 10,817 2353 25

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 613 761 75
Davidson Tennessee 462 1066 66
Orange California 422 1162 63
York South Carolina 310 1460 53
Pierce Washington 259 1640 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons